Welcome to Week 10! If you’re a regular reader of this column then you’ll know that Daniel and I have been upping the ante recently, attempting to identify gettable parlays and wagers that pay out at plus odds. That has resulted in some big wins, even if they’ve not been as consistent. We both got a little bit of everything right in Week 9, but only two bets wholly hit. That doesn’t mean we’re planning to stop this go-round, though.
So buckle up, dig in, and let’s prop ’til we pop! –Loza
All odds as of publication time. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.
Quarterback props
Sam Darnold OVER 1.5 touchdowns (-140)
Dopp: I don’t usually like to take props that have a line south of -140, but this matchup is too good to fade and feels like a smash spot. Darnold has been lights-out in the touchdown department with 17 passing TDs this year, tied for fourth most in the NFL. The Jags have been giving up passing touchdowns in bunches, with six of nine starting QBs having hit this mark this year, and the only three to fall short being Tua Tagovailoa (1 TD), Deshaun Watson (0 TD) and Jordan Love (injured during the game).
With T.J. Hockenson back, Darnold now has a great complement of pass catchers in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Hock to pair with a nice pass-catching back in Aaron Jones. This matchup is too good to ignore and Darnold should take advantage of it here in Week 10.
Russell Wilson rush attempts OVER 3.5 (-155) and 15-plus rushing yards (-105)
Loza: Wilson might no longer be the runner he was a decade ago, but the 35-year-old can still scamper when he wants to. Interestingly, the vet ranked sixth at the position in total carries, averaging 5.3 rush attempts per game, in 2023. Since taking over for Justin Fields, Wilson has recorded exactly three rushing attempts in back-to-back efforts. I expect that number to spike given the matchup in Week 10.
Washington’s defense has, undoubtedly, stiffened since the start of the season, but the Commanders can still be had via the ground. In fact, the Commanders have been run on at the highest rate (29 attempts) over the past four weeks. Admittedly, the team has faced three mobile QBs, with Lamar Jackson, Caleb Williams and Daniel Jones recording at least 40 yards in each contest. Still, Andy Dalton registered two rushing attempts in 3½ quarters before getting benched in Week 7. If the Red Rifle felt compelled to run, then surely DangeRuss will want to lean into his wheels at Washington. With the Commanders allowing an average of 23.6 rushing yards per game to opposing QBs, the Steelers signal-caller appears in line for his highest rushing total of 2024.
Running back props
Jonathan Taylor OVER 3.5 receptions (+130)
Loza: Taylor’s rushing output took a hit with Joe Flacco under center in Week 9. However, his number of targets drawn peaked, as he converted three of a season-high five looks for 11 yards at Minnesota. An uptick in Taylor’s passing game utilization makes good sense given Flacco’s statue-like pocket presence. It’s also a trend that doesn’t figure to change in Week 10 versus the Bills.
Not only are the Colts expected to be chasing points (+4 spread), but the Bills’ defense has been ultra-generous to pass-catching RBs. In fact, Buffalo’s defense has given up the most receptions (61 of a league-high 76 targets) to opposing backs. With Von Miller rejoining the team’s pass rush and the rest of the unit largely back to health, Taylor figures to thrive as a checkdown option for his QB.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. OVER 69.5 rushing yards (-135)
Dopp: Last week I got burned by Alvin Kamara by parlaying an anytime touchdown with his rushing + receiving yardage prop (which smashed), so I came up with an unfortunate loss despite correctly calling a massive game. I’m not going to do that again this week. Instead, I’ll just deal with this prop coming in at -135 rather than trying to boost my odds. Tracy is in a great spot taking on the Carolina Panthers, who have allowed close to 1 million yards on the ground this year.
OK, OK, maybe not that many, but they have given up the most rushing yards in the NFL. They’re allowing a healthy 4.6 yards per carry, tied for 10th most, and they’ve let an RB to hit this mark in eight of their nine games this season. Tracy has hit this line only twice this year, but he didn’t take over as the starter until Week 5 and he has played much stiffer competition than the Panthers’ rush defense.
This game is taking place in Germany, so make sure you get this prop in before you go to bed Saturday night, otherwise that 9:30 a.m. ET start time will creep up on you! With his big play ability to gash a defense as well as this superb matchup, I’m taking Tracy OVER 69.5 rushing yards.
Other props
T.J. Hockenson OVER 34.5 receiving yards (-115)
Dopp: Hockenson returned to the field last week and played a modest 45% of the snaps, but we’re expecting that number to rise here in Week 10. Not only do we expect him to play more snaps, but I’m expecting him to crush this line given his passing game prowess. I know, he doesn’t have Kirk Cousins under center this year, but looking back at last season, T.J. hit this line in 13 of his 14 games. He averaged 64 receiving yards per game in 2023.
Now with Darnold under center, I’m still very bullish on Hockenson, not just because of his skill set, but also because he’s taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have been a sieve against opposing teams’ pass catchers. The past four tight ends to take on the Jags were Grant Calcaterra (30 yards), Cole Kmet (70), Tucker Kraft (78) and Hunter Henry (92). Three of four is a pretty good indication that good things are in store for this prop. Heck, the fact that a backup tight end in Calcaterra almost hit this line showcases everything you need to know. I know the Vikings have plenty of weapons to utilize, but Hockenson should feast against this defense.
Taysom Hill to score an anytime touchdown and Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints to go over 45.5 total points — YES (+350)
Loza: What could possibly go wrong when two bottom-10 defenses square off? The hope here is that both offenses can convert. Interestingly, the Saints have averaged 23 points per game while the Falcons have mustered an average of 24. If both teams stay mid, the over on 45.5 should hit.
Hill figures to remain a large part of the New Orleans’ offensive game plan. With interim coach Darren Rizzi reportedly planning to picking up the pace and the Saints expected to chase points (+4), Derek Carr is likely to regularly look for the Swiss Army knife-like player. Given Chris Olave’s absence and with Kendre Miller back on IR, Hill’s versatility should be leaned upon. He also recorded two rushing scores the last time he faced Atlanta back in Week 4. A player with a special skill set in a special set of circumstances deserves special betting attention.
