How Yankees, Dodgers should pitch to each other's stars: Smoltz's World Series preview

How Yankees, Dodgers should pitch to each other’s stars: Smoltz’s World Series preview

Before the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees get set to meet in the Fall Classic for the first time since 1981, we spoke about the matchup with John Smoltz, who pitched in five different World Series during his Hall of Fame tenure with the Atlanta Braves.

Smoltz talked about how he’d try to approach facing the red-hot Giancarlo Stanton, how Juan Soto has changed the Yankees’ lineup, which relievers he’d use against Aaron Judge late in games, whether the Yankees’ right-handed pitchers can learn anything from Yu Darvish’s success against Shohei Ohtani and which Dodgers starter might be best equipped to take on the patient Yankees lineup.

The MLB on FOX analyst also gave his thoughts on the Dodgers’ bullpen games — which are likely to continue this series — if Yoshinobu Yamamoto should keep the same approach that brought him success earlier this year in the Bronx, and possible World Series MVPs.

Kavner: Giancarlo Stanton is having another big postseason. Why do you think he seems to find another gear in October? How would you go about pitching to him?

Smoltz: When he’s healthy and he’s on time, he’s one of those unique hitters — so strong. He looks like he never uses anything but his upper body. But obviously, his legs are very important to him, and when he’s out of balance, it looks like he’s on roller skates, and his legs and feet are all over the place. When he’s in balance and on time, he can hit a 100 mph fastball at the top of the zone. He can hit 100 mph at the bottom of the zone. But you’ve really got to be able to get your secondary pitches out of the zone. If he doesn’t chase, you’re in trouble.

Right now, I don’t know what this time off is going to do for everybody, especially the Yankees. They’ve had longer time off, but he has been a tough out, and that’s what the Yankees have to have, because behind Aaron Judge is the key. If those hitters are able to be, let’s just say, normally good, then the Yankees are a tough lineup. But if the guys behind Judge don’t do the things that allow you to capitalize with men on, then you’re going to see Judge not pitched to a lot.

So, it’s a good thing for the Yankees that they got a couple guys behind him hot — I know they had to move Austin Wells down because he was not hot behind Judge — but that’s the secret. I mean, they’ve got the top-heavy, probably the two and three best hitters in the game, back to back. You can make an argument that when Freddie Freeman is healthy, the Dodgers’ top three are just as equal, if not better.

Kavner: Who would you be more careful with right now on the mound, Juan Soto or Aaron Judge?

Smoltz: The key any time that you’re facing them is don’t have traffic on base. So, early in the game, you’re navigating possible solo home runs. You want to stay away from the three-run homer, the two-run homer. And so, when Soto’s on his game, he’s much tougher to pitch to. Judge has the absolute monster ability of power and average. But again, if you’re going to pitch around anybody, after you’ve gone through Soto, you’ve got to pitch around Judge.

But it’s not an easy answer either way, because they bat back-to-back, and it doesn’t matter right or left. That’s the thing. Soto is so complete at a young age, and he’s so intense to the strike zone. He’s the reason they traded for a game-changing lineup. He literally changed the entire lineup for the New York Yankees single-handedly.

Kavner: The Dodgers have done a pretty good job of lining up their high-leverage relievers late in games to attack specific matchups. Who would you plan to use against Judge?

Smoltz: I think what they’re going to do is they’re not going to let any one guy face him three times. This is going to be a bullpen series again for the Dodgers. I like Evan Phillips’ breaking ball against Judge, the way that he angles and throws it, and Judge is so big that the bottom part of the strike zone gives him issues. And that’s really the key, depending on what umpire gives him the bottom of the zone. That could change how Dave Roberts utilizes him.

Blake Treinen, he’s got the equalizer going both ways. The interesting thing about Michael Kopech is he throws a lot of fastballs, even though he has the slider, and you can maybe get them at the top of the zone against Judge. But again, I think the breaking ball is the key on being able to get the angle that you want to get, to get Judge to swing outside of the plate.

Kavner: We saw the Padres have Tanner Scott face Shohei Ohtani late in games in the NLDS, while the Mets didn’t exactly have the kind of left-handed weapon in their bullpen. Do you expect the Yankees to use Tim Hill as a possible Ohtani neutralizer? For their right-handed starters, is there anything they can learn from Yu Darvish’s success against him?

Smoltz: Yes on Hill. As far as the Yankees starters go, they don’t really have those kinds of pitches that Darvish has. Obviously, Garrett Cole is a stud. When he’s on his game, he can handle anybody. But it’s going to be a challenge, no doubt, because there’s no lefties in that rotation. If Nestor Cortes is going to be on the roster, he possibly comes into play, he’s funky enough that I don’t know if they’ll ID him as someone who could face Ohtani, but Hill for sure is going to be on Ohtani.

It’s going to be the same narrative for the Dodgers in this World Series — can the bottom of the lineup for the Dodgers create chaos so that it makes it much more difficult for Aaron Boone to navigate when that lineup turns over? At the start of the game, it is what it is. Ohtani didn’t get on base a ton when nobody was on until late in the series. He’s on a historic run with runners on. I would look for the Yankees to look at video and really dial in on what was happening with runners on with Ohtani versus what was happening with nobody on. There’s freedom to pitch to him with nobody on, and it gets a lot more stressful when there’s runners on.

Kavner: Which of the Dodgers’ three starting pitchers do you think is best equipped to have success against this very patient Yankees lineup? Is there any matchup you’d give the Dodgers the starting pitching edge in this series?

That’s going to be tough, because those guys have been up and down. I think Jack Flaherty has the opportunity to go to the deepest if he’s on. He just has more pitchability, he’s a starter that is closer to a throwback. I don’t think they’re going to let anybody go six innings at any point. That just doesn’t happen. I think the way the Dodgers are going to navigate this, in the games they have a chance to win, they’re going to push the throttle way down. They’re going to exit the starter and go right to the pen. And then the games that don’t look like they have a high chance of winning, they’re going to go a different route.

It’s not throwing away games, that’s not what I’m saying. It’s just navigating what you have and the best way to use your resources. I think they did it unbelievably well in the Mets series, but the games allowed them to do that. I don’t know that the games are going to allow them to do that in this series. That’s why it’s going to be much tougher for Dave Roberts — he did a fantastic job last series — but this will be his toughest challenge, because I don’t think the games are going to be lopsided like we saw in the last series.

Kavner: We know bullpen games can work in a vacuum, but the concern over time is that it’s just not a sustainable method. While Dave Roberts did a good job of making sure the high-leverage guys were well-rested during the NLCS, do you expect the Dodgers’ success with bullpen games to continue in the World Series?

When this started eight years ago, everybody got excited that this was a new age and a way to get it done. There’s certain markets that made this very popular. But you know what started happening? All those relievers started going down with Tommy John and getting hurt. It’s an unsustainable long-term philosophy — but the Dodgers don’t have any choice right now. Let’s not forget, they put together a superstar rotation that just happened to get hurt. They had a lot of guys in the mix. They had eight or nine starters. Now they’re down to three, and so this was not their desire. This was not in the plans, but it’s the only way they can go now. It’s the only way for them to be successful.

But it is not a blueprint. With this playoff system, it is not a blueprint to get through the whole postseason like this. These guys are gassed, and they’re doing an incredible job. But I promise you, the Dodgers would do backflips if a starter were to go six or seven innings. They would be the biggest cheerleaders in the world. I’ve been in both of those worlds, and there has never been a more exhausting time for me personally than when I was the closer. I got up and down and used, and people forget all that. So, to answer that question, there is no other choice for them. But this is not the blueprint they were looking for. Give them credit, though, for backlogging their bullpen as well with as many arms, just in case this were to happen.

Kavner: Yoshinobu Yamamoto had the best start of his young MLB career against the Yankees earlier this year in the Bronx. When you’ve had success against the team that you’re facing in the postseason, how much did that lift your confidence? Also, were you tempted to attack them the same way, or do you have to find a different way because they’ve already seen it?

If you’re simply healthy and you’re able to do the things you did last time, then you don’t make a change. But if you’re not as healthy, or things are different, or it’s a long time ago, you’re seeing a totally different pitcher, maybe. I only changed when I saw teams a lot. I remember seeing the Cincinnati Reds a lot during the year, and then I got them in the postseason, and I completely flipped the script. I know my pitching coach was having a heart attack because I didn’t throw one slider. I threw 35 straight fastballs or something to start the game when it was a heavy right-handed lineup, and he goes, “Are we going to throw a slider anytime soon?” And I said, “Absolutely, but I got a plan. I’m going to pitch them backwards.”

So, that’s the time you make ultimate changes. But I think the bottom line is you don’t really do it often. If you’ve had success, your mindset is an absolute: make the other team change before you necessarily change. Especially when — Yamamoto is starting Game 2 — it’s not in New York. It’s a little bit different in L.A., and the World Series is so much different than a regular-season game — and he was electric in New York.

Kavner: I just covered the NLCS where, amid all the Dodgers’ superstars, Tommy Edman ended up being the NLCS MVP. Any predictions right now for MVP of the World Series?

It’s going to be heavy, heavy on the superstars. But this is what happens that you get guys that shine, they do things because the other team makes them be the guy. For the Yankees, I could see somebody like maybe Anthony Volpe doing something similar to what Edman did if he were to be in enough RBI situations. But you’re always looking for that player that nobody’s paying attention to.

For the Dodgers, I would be interested to see if Will Smith, with the way this rest lined up and his home run in his last game, I know the Dodgers are hoping he can get unlocked. Because if he can get unlocked, wow, does that lineup really go to another place. So, it’s all going to be heavy on the stars, and the MVP is probably going to be a star. But just like you said, Edman, great trade, great player that fits the mold for what the Dodgers needed.

John Smoltz, a first-ballot Baseball Hall of Famer, eight-time All-Star and National League Cy Young Award winner, is FOX MLB’s lead game analyst. In addition to calling the network’s marquee regular-season games, Smoltz is in the booth for the All-Star Game and a full slate of postseason matchups which include Division Series, League Championship Series and World Series assignments.

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

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